Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.4ppVol $2.9MCloses 31 Jul 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 21 of 21 matching geopolitics markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.3ppVol $1.8MCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.3ppVol $1.7MCloses 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
100%
+0.4ppVol $1.6MCloses 31 Oct 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
11%
-1.0ppVol $1.2MCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +6.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
21%
+6.5ppVol $117KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-2.0ppVol $96KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
+1.0ppVol $86KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
12%
Vol $63KCloses 15 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-1.0ppVol $54KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
-1.4ppVol $39KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-0.5ppVol $32KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
22%
+0.5ppVol $27KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Included because probability moved +2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
+2.5ppVol $26KCloses 31 Mar 2027
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
5%
-0.1ppVol $25KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
16%
+1.0ppVol $19KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
Included because probability moved +8.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
16%
+8.5ppVol $14KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Iran coup attempt by December 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
12%
+0.5ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.3pp.
High activity
83%
-0.3ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
40%
Vol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.5pp44 markets with notable movementCombined activity $94.0M
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