Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?
847e0efa-a6e5-4c8e-81a3-77014b3e6a98
Probability
100%
24h movement
+3.4pp
Signal: Low
24h activity $70K
Liq —
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
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Event hub
Compare market-implied probabilities for leading candidates to receive a 2026 Fields Medal, with activity, liquidity, and movement context.
Historical archive — resolved and finished outcomes are retained for research and citation, not current-event discovery.
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Lead mover: Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? · 100% · +3.4pp · 24h activity $70K
Event-level context
A seven-day comparison of the stored probability path across related outcomes. This separates a broad repricing from an isolated move.
Related outcomes are moving in opposite directions, so the event-level picture is not a single market view.
Hong Wang
24h snapshot
Jack Thorne
24h snapshot
Yu Deng
24h snapshot
Market-implied probabilities for named candidates to win a 2026 Fields Medal.
847e0efa-a6e5-4c8e-81a3-77014b3e6a98
100%
+3.4pp
24h activity $70K
Liq —
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
John Pardon
24h snapshot
Jacob Tsimerman
24h snapshot
Julian Sahasrabudhe
24h snapshot
Will Sawin
24h snapshot
Sam Raskin
24h snapshot
A coordinated move is evidence of shared repricing, not proof that the outcomes are independent, exhaustive, or correctly priced. Verify source rules and current prices before relying on the comparison.
8341007d-00e9-4403-ba76-1c78fb7cef81
100%
+3.3pp
24h activity $24K
Liq —
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
0f1d94b3-5fc0-46bb-89f7-57d3a92e3e3b
0%
-3.4pp
24h activity $13K
Liq $33K
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
2494dc15-ebeb-458b-9a05-217aa68e833d
100%
+3.1pp
24h activity $14K
Liq —
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
dc79b5ce-91ba-4b9e-a458-97e2c5085bb8
100%
+2.4pp
24h activity $16K
Liq —
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
292694ef-e3f5-4354-80d4-31b0b397c628
0%
-1.4pp
24h activity $1K
Liq $47K
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
c1b9db0a-0e34-42e6-a1b8-e991dc08b912
0%
-1.1pp
24h activity $721
Liq $0
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC
9988022e-6f93-4226-9c9a-aaf84a4541a7
0%
-1.1pp
24h activity $979
Liq $0
23 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC