Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
WNBA: 2026 Champion
2 active outcomes in this event
Atlanta Dream
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Atlanta Dream moved +19.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 21.0pp from 56% to 77%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: +19.5pp move, $1K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$1K traded in 24h$13K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 15 outcomes
9 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Broad consensus shiftSignal: Low
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
1 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +17.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 11.0pp, from 18% to 29%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC. The move came with substantial trading activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #13 of 40 moves reviewed: +17.0pp move, $8K activity.
$8K traded in 24h$8K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
MO-02 House Election Winner
2 active outcomes in this event
Ann Wagner (R)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Ann Wagner (R) moved -16.5pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 18.0pp from 77% to 59%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #14 of 40 moves reviewed: -16.5pp move, $5K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$5K traded in 24h$13K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 2 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
4 active outcomes in this event
March 31, 2027
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
March 31, 2027 moved -16.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: fell 15.5pp, from 51% to 36%, between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #15 of 40 moves reviewed: -16.0pp move, $5K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$5K traded in 24h$266K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 22 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 6 outcomes