Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
16%
Limited history-11.5pp
24h activity $219KCloses 1 Nov 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 57% probability for this outcome, a -6.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
57%Probability moved down 6.5pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
57%
24h Change
-6.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 6.5pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 15.5% | -11.5pp | $66K | active |
| December 31 | 27.0% | -7.0pp | $113K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 57.0% | -6.5pp | $105K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 44.0% | -1.5pp | $98K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jul 2027, 03:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
16%
27%
44%