Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
11%
Limited history
24h activity $134Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome, a -1.2pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%Recent probability movement (down 1.2pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
-1.2pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 1.5pp, from 6% to 4%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
5%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
4%
1 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
3%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.2pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2.8% | -1.2pp | $13K | active |
| December 31 | 10.5% | — | $9K | active |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC