Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Kash Patel out by September 30?
8%
Limited history+0.5pp
Lifetime volume $4KCloses 30 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
23%Recent probability movement (down 2.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
23%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 23.0% | -2.0pp | $21K | active |
| September 30 | 7.5% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| August 31 | 2.4% | +0.3pp | $10K | active |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
8%
2%