Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
89%
+4.0ppProbability moved down 2.5pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
17%
24h Change
-2.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
8
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any bill, measure, or resolution that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition for registering to vote or to vote in U.S. federal elections is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law, or is otherwise enacted into U.S. federal law, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Examples of qualifying legislation include H.R. 22, the “SAVE Act,” and H.R. 7296, the “SAVE America Act.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 30 Apr 2026, 00:00 UTC
Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.
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+4.0pp44%
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40%
+1.5pp