Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
8%
Limited history
24h activity $251Closes 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 7% probability for this outcome, a -1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
7%Recent probability movement (down 1.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
7%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 1.0pp, from 8% to 7%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
8%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
8%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
7%
1 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
7%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 6.5% | -1.0pp | $65K | active |
| Kuwait | 7.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Qatar | 5.5% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Jordan | 6.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Azerbaijan | 2.6% | +0.2pp | $15K | active |
| Turkey | 4.0% | -0.3pp | $14K | active |
| Oman | 4.8% | -0.05pp | $19K | active |
| Syria | 4.3% | — | $13K | active |
| Somaliland | 7.5% | -1.0pp | $11K | active |
| Lebanon | 8.5% | — | $12K | active |
| Pakistan | 2.9% | -0.2pp | $13K | active |
| Egypt | 6.1% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC