Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Elizabeth Girard be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
0%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $14KCloses 8 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
11%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
11%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollie Noveletsky | 10.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Elizabeth Girard | 0.1% | — | $9K | active |
| Anthony DiLorenzo | 88.5% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Brian Cole | 0.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Melissa Bailey | 0.7% | +0.4pp | $9K | active |
Probability sum: 100.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
89%
0%
1%