Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.3pp.
High activity
3%
-0.3ppVol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 145-180 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.3pp.
High activity
10%
+0.3ppVol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
1%
Vol $10KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.3pp.
High activity
6%
-0.3ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.05ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $10KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
99%
-0.1ppVol $10KCloses 8 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $10KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
99%
-0.1ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $10KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
13%
+2.0ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
12%
+2.5ppVol $10KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.8pp).
Stable consensus
29%
+0.8ppVol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $9KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $9KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $9KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
86%
+2.5ppVol $9KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.2ppVol $9KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $9KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
90%
+0.2ppVol $9KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.3ppVol $9KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $9KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $9KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $9KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
Included because probability moved +4.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
23%
+4.0ppVol $9KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $9KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+1.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-1.1ppVol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Avg 24h move 1.7pp387 markets with notable movementCombined activity $311.9M
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