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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
2 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
0%
5 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
0%
6 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 84.2% | +0.9pp | $837K | active |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 15.5% | -1.0pp | $1.4M | active |
| Renan Santos | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Eduardo Leite | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Romeu Zema | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Camilo Santana | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Augusto Cury | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Tereza Cristina | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Pablo Marçal | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Helder Barbalho | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)