Politics

Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.3%
No implied probability: 99.8%
Liquidity: $2.3M
24h activity: $15K
Lifetime volume: $35.6M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 08:02 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Wes Moore	1.4%	-0.1pp	$771K	active
Graham Platner	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	18.6%	-1.8pp	$361K	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	—	$418K	active
Jon Ossoff	13.7%	-1.2pp	$358K	active
Josh Shapiro	5.0%	+0.1pp	$503K	active
Mark Cuban	0.6%	—	$1.9M	active
Kamala Harris	8.0%	+0.6pp	$321K	active
Gavin Newsom	15.8%	-1.0pp	$321K	active
Jared Polis	0.3%	—	$993K	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Ruben Gallego	0.3%	—	$1.1M	active
Raphael Warnock	0.7%	—	$1.8M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
George Clooney	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Roy Cooper	0.3%	—	$1.8M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.3%	—	$546K	active
LeBron James	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	—	$2.0M	active
Chris Murphy	0.3%	-0.1pp	$1.9M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Barack Obama	0.3%	—	$2.5M	active
Bernie Sanders	0.6%	—	$918K	active
MrBeast	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Andy Beshear	2.3%	—	$591K	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.3%	—	$2.6M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Liz Cheney	0.3%	—	$2.7M	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.5%	—	$791K	active
Gina Raimondo	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
John Fetterman	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Mark Kelly	2.9%	-0.1pp	$313K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Ro Khanna	2.3%	—	$263K	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.4%	—	$803K	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Jon Stewart	0.8%	-0.1pp	$325K	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Hunter Biden	0.6%	—	$1.2M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.7%	-0.05pp	$911K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.8%	-0.05pp	$256K	active
James Talarico	2.1%	+0.05pp	$278K	active

Probability sum: 93.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC