Politics
MediumFresh
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $14KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 109-144 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
13%
+2.0ppVol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.2pp.
High activity
2%
-0.2ppVol $14KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $14KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
15%
-1.0ppVol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
81%
+0.5ppVol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $14KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $14KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.2ppVol $13KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
15%
-1.0ppVol $13KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $13KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Included because probability moved +7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
74%
+7.0ppVol $13KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $13KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $13KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
Included because probability moved -1.6pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
6%
-1.6ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved -2.7pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
31%
-2.7ppVol $12KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
3%
-0.1ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-1.5ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $12KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.7pp.
High activity
6%
-0.7ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +19.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
48%
+19.0ppVol $12KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included because probability moved +1.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
+1.1ppVol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
76%
+5.0ppVol $11KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $11KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Avg 24h move 1.7pp384 markets with notable movementCombined activity $337.5M
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