Politics
HighFresh
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
Included because probability moved -13.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
23%
-13.0ppVol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 181-216 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
20%
-0.05ppVol $8KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Included because probability moved +7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
80%
+7.0ppVol $8KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
26%
+3.0ppVol $8KCloses 30 Jun 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.3ppVol $7KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.3ppVol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $7KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $6KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $6KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
Included because probability moved +1.6pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
10%
+1.6ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
15%
-0.1ppVol $6KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $6KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.1ppVol $6KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
14%
+1.0ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.1ppVol $6KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $6KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
50%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $6KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $6KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Avg 24h move 1.7pp385 markets with notable movementCombined activity $290.7M
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