Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
0%
Limited history-1.2pp
24h activity $97KCloses 19 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome, a +0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.1pp from 6% to 6%, gradually rather than in one jump.
6%
27 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
6%
27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
6%
27 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
6%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
6%
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bardella | 0.1% | -1.2pp | $194K | active |
| François Ruffin | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $156K | active |
| Marine Le Pen | 43.3% | +0.1pp | $339K | active |
| David Lisnard | 8.0% | +1.0pp | $396K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 0.1% | — | $342K | active |
| Sarah Knafo | 0.9% | — | $265K | active |
| François Hollande | 5.6% | +0.05pp | $170K | active |
| Gabriel Attal | 2.3% | — | $246K | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 0.5% | +0.1pp | $247K | active |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1.4% | +0.1pp | $304K | active |
| Christine Lagarde | 0.3% | — | $203K | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0.5% | -0.3pp | $231K | active |
| Édouard Philippe | 19.5% | — | $228K | active |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13.5% | — | $307K | active |
| Ségolène Royal | 0.3% | — | $315K | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 1.1% | — | $246K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.1% | — | $754K | active |
| Karim Bouamrane | 0.1% | — | $788K | active |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 1.6% | -0.2pp | $278K | active |
| Jean Castex | 0.1% | — | $80K | active |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0.1% | — | $741K | active |
| Yannick Jadot | 0.1% | — | $553K | active |
| Clémence Guetté | 0.1% | — | $639K | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 0.1% | — | $617K | active |
| François Bayrou | 0.1% | — | $629K | active |
| François Asselineau | 0.1% | — | $569K | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.1% | — | $602K | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 0.1% | — | $617K | active |
| Michel Barnier | 0.1% | — | $599K | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 0.1% | — | $248K | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 0.1% | — | $618K | active |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.1% | — | $526K | active |
| Carole Delga | 0.1% | — | $624K | active |
| Fabien Roussel | 0.1% | — | $524K | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 0.1% | — | $614K | active |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1% | — | $590K | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.1% | — | $242K | active |
| Juan Branco | 0.1% | — | $153K | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 0.1% | — | $379K | active |
| François Baroin | 0.1% | +0.05pp | $61K | active |
| Marion Maréchal | 0.1% | — | $473K | active |
| Lucie Castets | 0.1% | — | $554K | active |
Probability sum: 100.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTC