Politics

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 3.6%
No implied probability: 96.3%
Liquidity: $101K
24h activity: $189
Lifetime volume: $1.5M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 08:02 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Jean Castex	0.3%	-0.1pp	$149K	active
François Asselineau	0.1%	—	$479K	active
David Lisnard	4.0%	+1.2pp	$141K	active
Gérald Darmanin	0.1%	-0.1pp	$269K	active
Dominique de Villepin	1.6%	-0.1pp	$160K	active
Raphaël Glucksmann	1.6%	+0.1pp	$197K	active
Marine Le Pen	33.4%	+0.9pp	$191K	active
Élisabeth Borne	0.1%	—	$519K	active
Jordan Bardella	2.4%	-0.2pp	$147K	active
Gabriel Attal	3.8%	—	$180K	active
Bruno Retailleau	1.9%	—	$223K	active
Sébastien Lecornu	1.4%	—	$105K	active
Manuel Bompard	0.1%	—	$510K	active
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	0.1%	—	$541K	active
Yaël Braun-Pivet	0.1%	—	$518K	active
Michel Barnier	0.3%	—	$515K	active
Valérie Pécresse	0.1%	—	$510K	active
Carole Delga	0.1%	—	$548K	active
Clémentine Autain	0.1%	—	$520K	active
François Ruffin	0.1%	—	$438K	active
Fabien Roussel	0.1%	—	$506K	active
Bernard Cazeneuve	0.5%	—	$253K	active
François Bayrou	0.1%	—	$521K	active
Karim Bouamrane	0.1%	—	$408K	active
Laurent Wauquiez	0.1%	—	$478K	active
Marine Tondelier	0.1%	—	$387K	active
Lucie Castets	0.1%	—	$419K	active
Clémence Guetté	0.1%	—	$520K	active
Mathilde Panot	0.1%	—	$516K	active
Édouard Philippe	25.5%	—	$116K	active
Xavier Bertrand	0.1%	—	$509K	active
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	13.5%	—	$169K	active
Yannick Jadot	0.1%	—	$420K	active
Éric Zemmour	0.8%	—	$127K	active
François Baroin	0.1%	—	$424K	active
Marion Maréchal	0.1%	—	$375K	active
Ségolène Royal	0.1%	—	$419K	active
Sarah Knafo	1.9%	—	$148K	active
Olivier Faure	0.1%	—	$466K	active
Juan Branco	0.1%	-0.1pp	$179K	active
François Hollande	3.6%	—	$101K	active

Probability sum: 99.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC