EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?

99%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCResolution watch-0.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

99%

24h Change

-0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

8

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
99.2%
No implied probability
0.8%
Liquidity
$22K
Market Activity
$182K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends the NATO Summit event scheduled for July 7, 2026 – July 8, 2026 in Ankara, Türkiye. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the NATO Summit is defined as being in physical attendance in the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 8 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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