Politics

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus-0.05pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

24h Change

-0.05pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.1%
No implied probability: 99.8%
Liquidity: $1.6M
24h activity: $252
Lifetime volume: $10.6M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 15 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1.6M and 24h activity is $252. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Marco Rubio	16.4%	-0.8pp	$321K	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$142K	active
J.D. Vance	51.3%	—	$327K	active
Ron DeSantis	2.4%	—	$409K	active
Greg Abbott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Kristi Noem	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Matt Gaetz	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Thomas Massie	0.7%	—	$392K	active
Pete Hegseth	0.4%	-0.1pp	$1.8M	active
Tucker Carlson	3.5%	—	$254K	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.5%	—	$275K	active
Mike Pence	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Brian Kemp	0.3%	—	$808K	active
Elise Stefanik	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Katie Britt	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Byron Donalds	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Erika Kirk	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Joe Kent	0.1%	—	$1.5M	active
Eric Trump	0.1%	-0.05pp	$1.6M	active
Steve Bannon	0.2%	-0.05pp	$1.9M	active
Josh Hawley	0.3%	—	$989K	active
Donald Trump	1.9%	—	$323K	active
Ivanka Trump	0.8%	—	$769K	active
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
Rand Paul	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Tom Brady	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Ted Cruz	1.8%	—	$774K	active
Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.3%	—	$997K	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.3%	—	$960K	active
Donald Trump Jr.	1.6%	—	$601K	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.3M	active
Nikki Haley	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Elon Musk	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
John Thune	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.3%	—	$673K	active
Candace Owens	0.3%	—	$846K	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active

Probability sum: 86.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC