Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
6%
Limited history-0.4pp
24h activity $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
92%Probability is barely changed (down 1.1pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
92%
24h Change
-1.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.1pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 92.3% | -1.1pp | $44K | active |
| Steve Hilton | 5.8% | -0.4pp | $160K | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $338K | active |
| Rick Caruso | 0.1% | — | $341K | active |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | 0.1% | — | $296K | active |
| Tom Steyer | 0.1% | — | $106K | active |
| Chad Bianco | 0.1% | — | $82K | active |
| Matt Mahan | 0.1% | — | $116K | active |
| Kyle Langford | 0.1% | — | $332K | active |
| Nicole Shanahan | 0.1% | — | $317K | active |
| Katie Porter | 0.1% | — | $284K | active |
| Betty Yee | 0.1% | — | $341K | active |
| Stephen Cloobeck | 0.1% | — | $316K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 0.1% | — | $279K | active |
| Toni Atkins | 0.1% | — | $339K | active |
| Michael Younger | 0.1% | — | $329K | active |
| Eric Swalwell | 0.1% | — | $292K | active |
| Eleni Kounalakis | 0.1% | — | $344K | active |
| Tony Thurmond | 0.1% | — | $300K | active |
| Daniel Mercuri | 0.1% | — | $321K | active |
| Butch Ware | 0.1% | — | $341K | active |
| Elaine Culotti | 0.1% | — | $344K | active |
| Leo Zacky | 0.1% | — | $338K | active |
Probability sum: 99.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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