Politics

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.8%
No implied probability: 99.2%
Liquidity: $251K
24h activity: $615
Lifetime volume: $12.6M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 14 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Gavin Newsom	7.5%	+0.2pp	$371K	active
JD Vance	23.8%	-0.3pp	$433K	active
Tucker Carlson	1.4%	—	$329K	active
Marco Rubio	11.1%	-0.3pp	$265K	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.4%	-0.4pp	$163K	active
Donald Trump Jr.	0.5%	-0.05pp	$962K	active
Michelle Obama	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Jamie Dimon	0.3%	-0.05pp	$783K	active
Pete Buttigieg	2.6%	—	$539K	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Kamala Harris	3.8%	—	$345K	active
Greg Abbott	0.8%	—	$2.2M	active
James Talarico	0.8%	—	$731K	active
Elon Musk	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	13.3%	—	$315K	active
Pete Hegseth	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$1.5M	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Wes Moore	0.8%	—	$251K	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.3%	—	$1.1M	active
Thomas Massie	0.8%	+0.05pp	$327K	active
JB Pritzker	0.3%	—	$520K	active
Jon Ossoff	11.6%	—	$316K	active
Ron DeSantis	1.9%	—	$190K	active
Ivanka Trump	0.5%	—	$441K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.3%	—	$236K	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Ro Khanna	0.8%	—	$996K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.1%	—	$277K	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Jalen Brunson	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Eric Trump	0.1%	—	$2.3M	active
Stephen Smith	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Nikki Haley	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Andy Beshear	1.1%	—	$339K	active
Josh Shapiro	3.5%	—	$327K	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Mark Kelly	1.8%	-0.05pp	$241K	active
Candace Owens	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Donald Trump	1.8%	-0.3pp	$612K	awaiting resolution

Probability sum: 94.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC