Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
12%
Vol $905Closes 31 Dec 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 215 matching geopolitics markets.
Showing 109-144 of 215 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
47%
Vol $894Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
57%
+0.5ppVol $887Closes 18 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
+7.5ppVol $880Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
28%
-2.0ppVol $856Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
76%
-1.5ppVol $774Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
3%
+0.3ppVol $739Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.3ppVol $725Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
31%
-4.4ppVol $708Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Included because probability moved -1.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
-1.3ppVol $672Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
35%
+0.5ppVol $667Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
18%
Vol $525Closes 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
11%
+0.5ppVol $505Closes 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
25%
-0.1ppVol $477Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
26%
+1.0ppVol $452Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
20%
-0.5ppVol $451Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
6%
-0.5ppVol $449Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.05ppVol $447Closes 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
21%
-1.0ppVol $428Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.3ppVol $414Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.3ppVol $413Closes 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
10%
+1.0ppVol $384Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $382Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +7.7pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
+7.7ppVol $377Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
12%
+0.5ppVol $374Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Lucy nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +10.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+10.0ppVol $350Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.6ppVol $289Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $286Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
5%
+0.3ppVol $284Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
15%
Vol $258Closes 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
11%
Vol $215Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $214Closes 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
65%
-1.0ppVol $209Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+4.5ppVol $176Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $169Closes —
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
85%
+1.0ppVol $164Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.6pp45 markets with notable movementCombined activity $9.4M
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