Geopolitics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by December 31, 2027?
32%
Limited history
24h activity $23Closes 1 Jan 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome, a -1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (down 1.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.5pp from 6% to 6%, gradually rather than in one jump.
6%
19 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
6%
19 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
7%
19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
7%
19 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
5%
23 Oct 2026, 12:37 UTC
6%
23 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5.5% | -1.5pp | $87K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 32.0% | — | $9K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 25.0% | +2.0pp | $7K | active |
| August 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC