Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $169Closes —
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 215 matching geopolitics markets.
Showing 145-180 of 215 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
17%
Vol $161Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
16%
-1.5ppVol $157Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
NATO dissolves before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
4%
Vol $156Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
85%
+1.0ppVol $151Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +19.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
6%
-19.5ppVol $147Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
12%
-9.0ppVol $138Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.6ppVol $128Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
23%
+7.5ppVol $127Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
19%
-3.0ppVol $119Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
41%
Vol $113Closes 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
6%
-0.2ppVol $112Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Juice Head nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
+3.0ppVol $110Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Fre nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+4.5ppVol $102Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
1%
-0.1ppVol $101Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.05ppVol $101Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
20%
Vol $100Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Low-confidence: move is +4.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
30%
+4.7ppVol $99Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
2%
+0.05ppVol $89Closes 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
12%
-1.0ppVol $86Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
9%
-3.5ppVol $84Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.4pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.4ppVol $81Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
8%
+1.0ppVol $80Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be 1.1T or more?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
4%
+2.5ppVol $79Closes 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.4pp).
Stable consensus
11%
-0.4ppVol $77Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $75Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.8ppVol $73Closes —
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $71Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
+1.0ppVol $71Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
13%
-1.0ppVol $66Closes 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +21.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
+21.0ppVol $62Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Big Tobacco buy Alp nicotine pouches?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
-2.5ppVol $62Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
6%
Vol $61Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
65%
+1.0ppVol $57Closes 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +9.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
+9.5ppVol $55Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.6ppVol $54Closes 31 Aug 2026
Avg 24h move 1.6pp48 markets with notable movementCombined activity $7.3M
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