Geopolitics
HighFresh
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
-1.0ppVol $5KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 215 matching geopolitics markets.
Showing 73-108 of 215 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
44%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
27%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
2%
+0.1ppVol $4KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
28%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
22%
-2.0ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
10%
-1.0ppVol $3KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
17%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
4%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
25%
-0.5ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $3KCloses —
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
8%
Vol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
-6.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
Included because probability moved -9.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
6%
-9.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
-7.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.1ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.05ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
22%
+1.0ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
3%
+0.1ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
92%
Vol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
1%
-0.5ppVol $1KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
13%
-1.5ppVol $1KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
+1.0ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
+1.5ppVol $1KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US x China Military clash before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
6%
Vol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
6%
Vol $979Closes 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
12%
-0.5ppVol $912Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.5pp43 markets with notable movementCombined activity $29.2M
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