Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 15% probability for this outcome, a +2.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
15%Recent probability movement (up 2.4pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
15%
24h Change
+2.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.2pp, from 13% to 15%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
12%
12 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
13%
12 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
13%
13 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
13%
13 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
15%
16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
15%
17 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.4pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC