EAEventAlpha
Geopolitics

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?

12%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCMeaningful move+6.8pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 6.8pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

12%

24h Change

+6.8pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%22:0019:000:001:002:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 6.8pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
11.8%
No implied probability
88.3%
Liquidity
$13K
Market Activity
$2K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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