Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
83%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $96K and 24h activity is $36. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.5% | +0.3pp | $80K | active |
| Saeed Jalili | 0.1% | — | $110K | active |
| Navid Shomali | 0.1% | — | $129K | active |
| Reza Pirzadeh | 0.1% | — | $107K | active |
| Hassan Shariatmadari | 0.1% | — | $94K | active |
| Maryam Rajavi | 0.1% | — | $112K | active |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | 0.1% | — | $100K | active |
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi | 0.1% | — | $97K | active |
| Massoud Rajavi | 0.1% | — | $109K | active |
| Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | 0.1% | — | $108K | active |
| No Head of State | 4.3% | -0.1pp | $94K | active |
| Mohammad Khatami | 0.1% | — | $99K | active |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | 0.3% | — | $88K | active |
| Hassan Khomeini | 0.6% | — | $84K | active |
| Sadegh Larijani | 0.1% | — | $91K | active |
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian | 0.1% | — | $107K | active |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | 1.6% | — | $84K | active |
| Ali Motahari | 0.1% | — | $97K | active |
| Sadegh Mahsouli | 0.1% | — | $109K | active |
| Reza Pahlavi | 3.1% | -0.2pp | $154K | active |
| Mohsen Araki | 0.1% | — | $106K | active |
| Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | 0.1% | — | $101K | active |
| Nasir Hosseini | 0.1% | — | $108K | active |
| Mustafa Hijri | 0.1% | — | $104K | active |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 0.6% | -0.05pp | $96K | active |
| Alireza Arafi | 2.5% | — | $86K | active |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 0.6% | +0.05pp | $80K | active |
| Hassan Rouhani | 0.7% | — | $93K | active |
| Abbas Araghchi | 0.3% | — | $89K | active |
| Ahmad Vahidi | 0.7% | — | $78K | active |
| Ali Larijani | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Mohammad Pakpour | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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