Politics
LowFresh
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
37%
+5.0ppVol $30KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 62 matching politics markets.
Showing 1-36 of 62 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
44%
+5.0ppVol $23KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-7.0ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.1ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +20.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
49%
+20.0ppVol $11KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+4.0ppVol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
57%
+5.0ppVol $10KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
-3.5ppVol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +8.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-8.5ppVol $4KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
54%
-3.0ppVol $4KCloses —
Politics
LowFresh
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
-5.0ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
Included because probability moved -19.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
48%
-19.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
Low-confidence: move is +17.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
63%
+17.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Jan 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
64%
-4.5ppVol $2KCloses 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-6.0ppVol $1KCloses —
Politics
HighFresh
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved +7.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
+7.5ppVol $956Closes 3 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +22.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+22.0ppVol $837Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved -5.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
41%
-5.5ppVol $687Closes 20 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-3.0ppVol $629Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-04 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
38%
-3.5ppVol $628Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
52%
-3.5ppVol $539Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +13.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
54%
+13.5ppVol $476Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+6.0ppVol $443Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +11.3pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
62%
-11.3ppVol $423Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
56%
+4.5ppVol $366Closes 23 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-3.5ppVol $318Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
37%
-4.5ppVol $307Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-5.5ppVol $274Closes 17 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
-5.0ppVol $240Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +28.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
43%
-28.5ppVol $226Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
65%
-3.0ppVol $144Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+3.0ppVol $132Closes 18 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +4.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
-4.8ppVol $106Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
-4.5ppVol $101Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit West Virginia in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+4.0ppVol $96Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $3.5M
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