EAEventAlpha
Geopolitics

Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-0.1pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $21K and 24h volume is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.3%
No implied probability
99.8%
Liquidity
$21K
Market Activity
$123K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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