Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?
6%
Limited history+0.5pp
24h activity $3KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 20% probability for this outcome, a +2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
20%Recent probability movement (up 2.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
20%
24h Change
+2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 1.5pp, from 18% to 19%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
19%
28 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
19%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
19%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
19%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
19%
1 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
20%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 19.5% | +2.0pp | $33K | active |
| October 31 | 6.0% | +0.5pp | $20K | active |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 15 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 26 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 19 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 13 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 16 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC