Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
9%
Limited history-2.0pp
24h activity $12KCloses 30 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
25%Recent probability movement (down 1.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
25%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 8.5% | -2.0pp | $57K | active |
| August 31 | 3.0% | -0.7pp | $69K | active |
| December 31 | 24.5% | -1.0pp | $68K | active |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 15 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 26 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 19 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 13 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 16 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
9%
3%