Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
10%
Limited history
24h activity $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 9.5% | — | $58K | active |
| August 31 | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $90K | active |
| September 30 | 2.0% | +0.1pp | $56K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
10%
2%