EAEventAlpha
Geopolitics

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

8%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTCMeaningful move-7.0pp (24h)

Probability moved down 7.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.

Signal: High

Current

8%

24h Change

-7.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 7.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
7.5%
No implied probability
92.5%
Liquidity
$11K
Market Activity
$28K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:37 UTC

AI brief may be stale. Current market metrics are shown above.

What this market asks

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Current market read

AI summary is unavailable because stored summary data is older than the latest market metrics. Current market metrics are shown above.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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