Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $28KCloses —
Category
Geopolitics
Tariffs, diplomacy, and conflict-related market-implied probability analytics.
327 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 215 matching geopolitics markets.
Showing 37-72 of 215 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
22%
+0.5ppVol $27KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Included because probability moved +2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
+2.5ppVol $26KCloses 31 Mar 2027
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
5%
-0.1ppVol $25KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.1pp.
High activity
9%
-0.1ppVol $23KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $23KCloses —
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.05ppVol $21KCloses —
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
16%
+1.0ppVol $19KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
6%
-0.5ppVol $17KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
4%
Vol $17KCloses 28 Feb 2027
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
Included because probability moved +8.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
16%
+8.5ppVol $14KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Iran coup attempt by December 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
12%
+0.5ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
66%
-0.5ppVol $12KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
10%
+1.5ppVol $11KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.3pp.
High activity
83%
-0.3ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
40%
Vol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowStale data
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $10KCloses —
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
9%
-2.0ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
11%
-0.5ppVol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
17%
+0.5ppVol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
4%
+0.05ppVol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
30%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
63%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
32%
Vol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
13%
+0.5ppVol $6KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Netanyahu out by July 31?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-0.6ppVol $5KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
HighFresh
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
27%
-1.0ppVol $5KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Geopolitics
LowFresh
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
13%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
3%
-0.05ppVol $5KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
14%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Geopolitics
MediumFresh
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.5pp44 markets with notable movementCombined activity $28.7M
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