Sport
HighFresh
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved -5.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-5.3ppVol $214KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Markets
Tracked markets
Read-only market intelligence from stored Polymarket data. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:02 UTC
Showing 36 of 232 matching markets.
Active markets
Ranked by 24h volume and overall activity.
Sport
HighFresh
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved +8.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
48%
+8.5ppVol $141KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Finance
LowFresh
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
-4.5ppVol $65KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Crypto
LowFresh
Over $200M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +13.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-13.0ppVol $62KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Crypto
LowFresh
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
-4.5ppVol $44KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Crypto
LowFresh
Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
-4.0ppVol $41KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Sport
HighFresh
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
60%
+5.0ppVol $36KCloses 12 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
37%
+5.0ppVol $30KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved -5.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
-5.5ppVol $25KCloses 20 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
44%
+5.0ppVol $23KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Over $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +9.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
+9.5ppVol $21KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Crypto
LowFresh
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
-3.0ppVol $19KCloses 1 Jan 2028
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Crypto
HighFresh
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Included because probability moved +10.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
51%
+10.5ppVol $17KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-7.0ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.1ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved +9.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
50%
+9.0ppVol $17KCloses 20 Aug 2026
Crypto
LowFresh
Will QFEX launch a token by September 30, 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
-5.5ppVol $16KCloses 1 Jan 2028
Crypto
LowFresh
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
57%
+4.0ppVol $13KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +20.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
49%
+20.0ppVol $11KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+4.0ppVol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
57%
+5.0ppVol $10KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
-3.5ppVol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next?
Low-confidence: move is +5.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
37%
-5.2ppVol $7KCloses 1 Sept 2026
Sport
LowFresh
New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?
Low-confidence: move is +35.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+35.0ppVol $6KCloses 1 Dec 2026
Finance
LowFresh
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.90% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
60%
+7.0ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Crypto
LowFresh
Unit FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
38%
-8.0ppVol $6KCloses 1 Jan 2028
Sport
LowFresh
Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Low-confidence: move is +37.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
48%
-37.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Crypto
LowFresh
MagicBlock FDV above $60M one day after launch?
Low-confidence: move is +9.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
43%
+9.5ppVol $5KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Sport
LowFresh
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+5.0ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowStale data
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
57%
+18.5ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +8.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-8.5ppVol $4KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +10.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
53%
+10.5ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
54%
-3.0ppVol $4KCloses —
Crypto
LowFresh
Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
-4.5ppVol $4KCloses 1 Jan 2028
Politics
LowFresh
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
-5.0ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026