Tech/AI
LowFresh
Elon Bull Run Parlay
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.3pp.
High activity
3%
-0.3ppVol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Tech/AI
Product launches, regulation, and adoption forecasts in probability terms.
372 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 179 matching tech/ai markets.
Showing 37-72 of 179 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.4pp.
High activity
9%
-0.4ppVol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Frank Ocean release a new song in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
28%
-1.5ppVol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
2%
Vol $11KCloses 1 Aug 2026
Tech/AI
HighFresh
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
98%
+1.0ppVol $11KCloses 17 Jul 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.05pp.
High activity
4%
-0.05ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.05pp.
High activity
19%
-0.05ppVol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
15%
Vol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
17%
+3.0ppVol $8KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
90%
+0.5ppVol $8KCloses 10 Jul 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $8KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?
Low-confidence: move is +2.1pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
6%
-2.1ppVol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
10%
Vol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumStale data
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
98%
+16.3ppVol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
66%
+3.0ppVol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
99%
+0.05ppVol $7KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Tech/AI
HighFresh
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
76%
+5.0ppVol $7KCloses 7 Jul 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
16%
Vol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
10%
Vol $7KCloses 19 Nov 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
32%
+0.5ppVol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Bad Bunny release an album in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
+2.0ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
10%
Vol $6KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
5%
+0.05ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
17%
-5.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
HighFresh
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Included because probability moved -1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
81%
-1.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day?
Low-confidence: move is +1.1pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
6%
+1.1ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
14%
-0.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
5%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?
Low-confidence: move is +1.3pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
5%
-1.3ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2027
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 2.9pp66 markets with notable movementCombined activity $3.2M
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