Tech/AI
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
4%
Limited history
24h activity $55Closes 1 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 72% probability for this outcome, a -21.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
72%Probability moved down 21.1pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
72%
24h Change
-21.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 21.1pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1520 | 72.3% | -21.1pp | $9K | active |
| 1530 | 4.1% | — | $2K | active |
| 1550 | 1.4% | -0.1pp | $914 | active |
| 1540 | 5.3% | +0.7pp | $694 | active |
| 1510 | 100.0% | +45.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
4%
1%
5%