Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?
100%
Limited history+0.05pp
24h activity $1KCloses 31 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome, a +0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
100%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
100%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.4pp from 100% to 100%, gradually rather than in one jump.
100%
19 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
100%
19 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
100%
19 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
100%
19 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
100%
19 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
100%
23 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 99.9% | +0.1pp | $24K | active |
| October 31 | 99.9% | +0.05pp | $26K | active |
| September 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 10 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 9 | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC