Tech/AI
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?
55%
Limited history-5.5pp
24h activity $300Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
36%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
36%
24h Change
+3.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 3.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $116 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lana Del Rey | 54.5% | -5.5pp | $91 | active |
| Jay Z | 64.0% | -2.5pp | $883 | active |
| Justin Bieber | 51.0% | +5.0pp | $126 | active |
| Taylor Swift | 40.0% | +7.0pp | $240 | active |
| Kendrick Lamar | 53.0% | +8.0pp | $357 | active |
| Rihanna | 13.0% | +0.5pp | $100 | active |
| Playboi Carti | 36.0% | +3.0pp | $116 | active |
| Bad Bunny | 45.0% | -3.5pp | $117 | active |
| Frank Ocean | 16.5% | — | $34 | active |
| Eminem | 37.0% | -2.0pp | $120 | active |
| Travis Scott | 53.5% | -0.5pp | $81 | active |
| Beyoncé | 50.0% | -0.5pp | $27 | active |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 51.0% | +2.0pp | $8 | active |
| Billie Eilish | 10.5% | — | $22 | active |
| Lil Uzi Vert | 50.0% | — | $3 | active |
| The Weekend | 49.5% | -5.5pp | $30 | active |
| Peso Pluma | 50.0% | — | $3 | active |
| A$AP Rocky | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Kanye West | 100.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Drake | 100.0% | +0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Future | 100.0% | +3.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Luke Combs | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Nettspend | 100.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Harry Styles | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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