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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31, 2026 | 8.0% | +1.5pp | $11K | active |
| August 21, 2026 | 2.0% | +0.9pp | $16K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 38.5% | — | $7K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 83.5% | — | $15K | active |
| October 31, 2026 | 46.5% | — | $921 | active |
| September 15, 2026 | 20.5% | +6.5pp | $2K | active |
| November 30, 2026 | 60.0% | +5.5pp | $667 | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 14, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 7, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.