Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
14%
Limited history+1.0pp
24h activity $930Closes 31 Dec 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $3K and 24h activity is $65. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 13.5% | +1.0pp | $2K | active |
| None in 2026 | 80.0% | +1.0pp | $2K | active |
| DeepSeek | 0.6% | — | $4K | active |
| Alibaba | 0.7% | — | $2K | active |
| xAI | 0.8% | -0.05pp | $3K | active |
| OpenAI | 1.8% | -1.9pp | $3K | active |
| 6.0% | -1.6pp | $3K | active | |
| Z.ai | 0.4% | — | $2K | active |
| Mistral | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
Probability sum: 103.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
14%
80%
1%
1%
2%
6%