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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+97.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 96.3pp, from 1% to 97%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
3%
27 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
3%
27 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
3%
27 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
3%
27 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
97%
30 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
100%
1 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1530 | 100.0% | +97.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| 1540 | 1.5% | -1.1pp | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| 1550 | 0.3% | -0.6pp | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| 1520 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| 1510 | 100.0% | +45.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.