Politics
LowFresh
Will Kamala Harris be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Low-confidence: move is +3.6pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
5%
+3.6ppVol $720Closes 10 Aug 2028
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 213 matching politics markets.
Showing 73-108 of 213 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
LowFresh
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-6.0ppVol $697Closes 18 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved -5.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
41%
-5.5ppVol $687Closes 20 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will there be at least 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
28%
-6.0ppVol $687Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
-6.5ppVol $670Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Rahm Emanuel be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Low-confidence: move is +16.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
3%
-16.0ppVol $666Closes 10 Aug 2028
Politics
LowFresh
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +19.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
6%
-19.8ppVol $653Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
7%
-6.0ppVol $636Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-3.0ppVol $629Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-04 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
38%
-3.5ppVol $628Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Included because probability moved +4.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
20%
+4.5ppVol $627Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
14%
-9.0ppVol $600Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
19%
-3.0ppVol $586Closes 1 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?
Low-confidence: move is +17.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
78%
-17.4ppVol $565Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the NC-01 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
+5.0ppVol $562Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
34%
+6.5ppVol $558Closes 31 Dec 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
86%
+4.0ppVol $554Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Phil Murphy be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Low-confidence: move is +20.1pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
1%
-20.1ppVol $517Closes 10 Aug 2028
Politics
LowFresh
Will Aisha Farooqi be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?
Low-confidence: move is +14.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
18%
+14.8ppVol $503Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
53%
-3.5ppVol $497Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
+6.5ppVol $476Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Elise Stefanik be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Low-confidence: move is +21.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
2%
-21.4ppVol $470Closes 14 Aug 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?
Included because probability moved +4.8pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
21%
+4.8ppVol $464Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+6.5ppVol $443Closes 4 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Pete Hegseth be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Low-confidence: move is +3.1pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
7%
+3.1ppVol $440Closes 14 Aug 2028
Politics
LowFresh
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
Low-confidence: move is +7.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
19%
-7.7ppVol $428Closes 20 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
57%
-7.2ppVol $423Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +25.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
81%
+25.0ppVol $415Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
Low-confidence: move is +10.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
79%
+10.5ppVol $413Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
13%
-3.5ppVol $388Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Low-confidence: move is +15.6pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
18%
+15.6ppVol $384Closes 14 Aug 2028
Politics
LowFresh
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
4%
+3.5ppVol $377Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.9pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
-3.9ppVol $368Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
56%
+4.5ppVol $366Closes 23 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
Included because probability moved -5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
3%
-5.0ppVol $352Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
+8.0ppVol $350Closes —
Avg 24h move 1.7pp384 markets with notable movementCombined activity $4.1M
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