Politics

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

15%

Market data currentHigh activity+0.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

15%

24h Change

+0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 14.8%
No implied probability: 85.2%
Liquidity: $348K
24h activity: $30K
Lifetime volume: $12.6M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Wes Moore	1.6%	+0.1pp	$788K	active
Graham Platner	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	18.1%	-2.3pp	$362K	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	—	$416K	active
Josh Shapiro	5.0%	+0.1pp	$503K	active
Mark Cuban	0.6%	—	$1.9M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Gavin Newsom	15.8%	-0.9pp	$361K	active
Jon Ossoff	14.8%	+0.1pp	$348K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Ruben Gallego	0.3%	—	$1.1M	active
Hunter Biden	0.6%	—	$1.2M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
George Clooney	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Kamala Harris	7.5%	—	$350K	active
Roy Cooper	0.3%	—	$1.8M	active
LeBron James	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.3%	—	$547K	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	—	$2.0M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.5%	—	$799K	active
MrBeast	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Bernie Sanders	0.6%	—	$916K	active
Liz Cheney	0.3%	—	$2.7M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Chris Murphy	0.3%	-0.1pp	$1.9M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.3%	—	$2.6M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
John Fetterman	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Mark Kelly	2.9%	-0.1pp	$311K	active
Andy Beshear	2.3%	—	$600K	active
Gina Raimondo	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
Jared Polis	0.3%	—	$1.0M	active
Barack Obama	0.3%	—	$2.5M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Ro Khanna	2.3%	—	$261K	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.4%	—	$811K	active
Jon Stewart	0.8%	-0.1pp	$331K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	-0.1pp	$1.8M	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.8%	-0.05pp	$254K	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.7%	-0.05pp	$899K	active
James Talarico	2.1%	+0.05pp	$288K	active

Probability sum: 94.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC