Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $98KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 15% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
15%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
15%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.3pp from 15% to 15%, gradually rather than in one jump.
15%
28 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
15%
29 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
15%
2 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.9% | — | $337K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $1.2M | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.4% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16.6% | +0.4pp | $380K | active |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | +0.2pp | $501K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 2.6% | -0.05pp | $349K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 16.3% | +0.2pp | $459K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 3.0% | +0.3pp | $420K | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | — | $333K | active |
| MrBeast | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1% | — | $2.9M | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| George Clooney | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Graham Platner | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Jon Stewart | 1.1% | -0.1pp | $317K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Wes Moore | 2.0% | — | $294K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.6% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Kamala Harris | 7.3% | — | $277K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.9% | — | $874K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% | — | $864K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 6.0% | +0.2pp | $274K | active |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.3% | — | $405K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Ro Khanna | 1.4% | — | $361K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $520K | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Barack Obama | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.7% | — | $539K | active |
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.1% | — | $829K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $846K | active |
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | — | $925K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.8% | — | $187K | active |
| Chris Murphy | 0.5% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.7% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $497K | active |
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
Probability sum: 91.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC