Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $75KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.2pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
28 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
0%
1 Oct 2026, 14:27 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1.2M and 24h activity is $8. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 15.3% | +0.3pp | $349K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17.8% | +1.2pp | $393K | active |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | +0.2pp | $523K | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Mark Kelly | 2.6% | — | $374K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 3.2% | +0.3pp | $434K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1% | — | $2.9M | active |
| George Clooney | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| MrBeast | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 16.3% | +0.1pp | $465K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | — | $359K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 1.3% | -0.05pp | $327K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Graham Platner | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.6% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Kamala Harris | 7.5% | +0.2pp | $289K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.9% | — | $880K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.7% | — | $550K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% | — | $872K | active |
| Chris Murphy | 0.5% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Roy Cooper | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.7% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Ro Khanna | 1.4% | — | $384K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.6% | +0.1pp | $1.8M | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.3% | — | $429K | active |
| Barack Obama | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Wes Moore | 2.0% | — | $310K | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $535K | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | — | $944K | active |
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.1% | — | $842K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1% | +0.05pp | $864K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 6.0% | — | $288K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Hunter Biden | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $1.2M | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.8% | — | $203K | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $526K | active |
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
Probability sum: 93.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC