Politics

Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus-0.05pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

-0.05pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.7%
No implied probability: 99.3%
Liquidity: $898K
24h activity: $10K
Lifetime volume: $12.4M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 04:03 UTC

Verify on Polymarket

Investigate pack

Everything you need before opening Polymarket

Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.

Verify on Polymarket ↗Back to markets

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Wes Moore	1.4%	-0.2pp	$767K	active
Graham Platner	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	18.1%	-2.4pp	$363K	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	—	$416K	active
Jon Ossoff	14.2%	-0.7pp	$331K	active
Josh Shapiro	5.0%	+0.1pp	$502K	active
Mark Cuban	0.6%	—	$1.9M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Kamala Harris	8.0%	+0.5pp	$331K	active
Gavin Newsom	15.8%	-0.9pp	$353K	active
Jared Polis	0.3%	—	$999K	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Ruben Gallego	0.3%	—	$1.2M	active
Hunter Biden	0.6%	+0.05pp	$1.2M	active
Raphael Warnock	0.7%	—	$1.8M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
George Clooney	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Roy Cooper	0.3%	—	$1.8M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.3%	—	$548K	active
LeBron James	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	—	$2.0M	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Bernie Sanders	0.6%	—	$913K	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.5%	—	$804K	active
MrBeast	0.3%	—	$2.8M	active
Liz Cheney	0.3%	—	$2.7M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.3%	—	$2.9M	active
Chris Murphy	0.3%	-0.1pp	$1.9M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.3%	—	$2.6M	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Gina Raimondo	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
Andy Beshear	2.3%	—	$587K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
John Fetterman	0.3%	—	$2.4M	active
Barack Obama	0.3%	—	$2.5M	active
Mark Kelly	2.9%	-0.1pp	$313K	active
Ro Khanna	2.3%	—	$266K	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.4%	—	$810K	active
Jon Stewart	0.8%	-0.1pp	$322K	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	0.7%	-0.05pp	$898K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.8%	-0.05pp	$267K	active
James Talarico	2.1%	+0.05pp	$285K	active

Probability sum: 93.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC