Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Included because probability moved -2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
28%
-2.5ppVol $4KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 253-288 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.05ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
6%
-0.1ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Included because probability moved +2.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
10%
+2.3ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
2%
Vol $4KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
21%
+0.05ppVol $4KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the OH-05 House seat?
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
92%
+2.0ppVol $4KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
44%
+3.0ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $3KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $3KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat?
Included because probability moved -3.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-3.1ppVol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-3.5ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
72%
-7.0ppVol $3KCloses 20 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
33%
-1.0ppVol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
22%
+1.0ppVol $3KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
2026 Balance of Power: Other
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
3%
+0.6ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the NC-02 House seat?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
-3.0ppVol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
3%
+0.3ppVol $3KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the MI-13 House seat?
Included because probability moved -4.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
2%
-4.3ppVol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.05ppVol $3KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $3KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
3%
-0.2ppVol $3KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
7%
Vol $3KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
LowStale data
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-0.05ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
46%
Vol $3KCloses —
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $3KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
59%
+1.0ppVol $3KCloses 4 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $3KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
7%
+0.1ppVol $2KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
58%
-7.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $2KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Avg 24h move 1.6pp367 markets with notable movementCombined activity $148.0M
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