Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the IL-10 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.9pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
-1.9ppVol $5KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 217-252 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
17%
Vol $5KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
97%
-0.3ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the GA-06 House seat?
Included because probability moved -4.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
2%
-4.5ppVol $5KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
3%
-0.3ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
12%
+3.0ppVol $5KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +4.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
11%
+4.8ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
9%
Vol $5KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
2%
Vol $5KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-03 House seat?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
-2.0ppVol $5KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.05ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Included because probability moved +1.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
40%
+1.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $5KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
LowFresh
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
11%
-8.0ppVol $4KCloses 15 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $4KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
12%
Vol $4KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
5%
+0.3ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the MI-09 House seat?
Included because probability moved +2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
94%
+2.5ppVol $4KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $4KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.05ppVol $4KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
HighFresh
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?
Included because probability moved -1.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
98%
-1.4ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
71%
+7.0ppVol $4KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $4KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Avg 24h move 1.7pp378 markets with notable movementCombined activity $139.5M
Back to homepage analytics