Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $71KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nir Barkat | 0.1% | — | $286K | active |
| Amir Ohana | 1.2% | +0.9pp | $96K | active |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 28.5% | — | $241K | active |
| Gilad Erdan | 0.3% | — | $195K | active |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0.3% | — | $187K | active |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 4.8% | -0.05pp | $112K | active |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 53.1% | -0.8pp | $132K | active |
| Yair Golan | 0.3% | — | $168K | active |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.3% | — | $103K | active |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.1% | — | $212K | active |
| Yair Lapid | 0.1% | — | $200K | active |
| Benny Gantz | 0.1% | — | $158K | active |
| Yariv Levin | 0.3% | — | $150K | active |
| Naftali Bennett | 5.5% | — | $132K | active |
| Ayelet Shaked | 0.1% | — | $199K | active |
| Israel Katz | 0.1% | — | $171K | active |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.8% | — | $103K | active |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0.3% | — | $205K | active |
Probability sum: 96.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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