Politics
MediumFresh
Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.8pp).
Stable consensus
12%
+0.8ppVol $2KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 289-324 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
99%
+0.1ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
2%
Vol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the IA-04 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
-1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.6ppVol $2KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-11 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
93%
-0.5ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the NY-20 House seat?
Included because probability moved -4.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
3%
-4.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the ID-02 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
-1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the OH-11 House seat?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
+1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
95%
+0.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
Low-confidence: move is +18.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
27%
+18.0ppVol $2KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-14 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
94%
Vol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.9pp).
Stable consensus
8%
+0.9ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the TN-03 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
94%
Vol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the OH-04 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
-1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
SBF released from custody in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.1ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +1.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
15%
-1.2ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Joshua Vasquez be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $2KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-08 House seat?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
+1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-42 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
-1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $2KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the MA-03 House seat?
Included because probability moved -4.2pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
1%
-4.2ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the IN-04 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
-1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-03 House seat?
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
+2.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
3%
+0.05ppVol $2KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the TX-11 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
-1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
8%
-5.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
100%
-0.05ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
31%
-0.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
55%
-1.0ppVol $2KCloses —
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.9pp).
Stable consensus
5%
-0.9ppVol $2KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
6%
-0.1ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?
Included because probability moved -4.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
82%
-4.5ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
97%
+1.0ppVol $2KCloses 6 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the OR-06 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
-1.4ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Avg 24h move 1.6pp383 markets with notable movementCombined activity $13.5M
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