Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
12%
Limited history+2.0pp
24h activity $126Closes 4 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 24% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
24%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
24%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 3.0pp, from 28% to 25%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC.
28%
11 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
28%
11 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
28%
11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
28%
11 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
25%
13 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
24%
15 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $31K and 24h activity is $198. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 190 | 23.5% | -0.5pp | $31K | active |
| 190-194 | 11.5% | +2.0pp | $26K | active |
| 210-214 | 8.6% | — | $26K | active |
| 220-224 | 3.7% | +0.5pp | $25K | active |
| 195-199 | 16.5% | +3.0pp | $27K | active |
| 200-204 | 12.5% | +2.9pp | $24K | active |
| 205-209 | 18.4% | -0.3pp | $19K | active |
| 230+ | 1.8% | -0.2pp | $25K | active |
| 225-229 | 2.7% | +0.05pp | $23K | active |
| 215-219 | 6.5% | +0.4pp | $24K | active |
Probability sum: 105.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC