Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
49%
Limited history-0.9pp
24h activity $13KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a +0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.1pp from 1% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
1%
2 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
1%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
1%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
1%
5 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
1%
6 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 49.3% | -0.9pp | $294K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9% | +0.05pp | $763K | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Ted Cruz | 2.5% | — | $779K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | +0.1pp | $624K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.6% | — | $374K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 15.2% | -0.2pp | $347K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $303K | active |
| Kristi Noem | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | — | $361K | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.5% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Brian Kemp | 0.3% | — | $811K | active |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.3% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Mike Pence | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.1% | — | $244K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.3% | — | $301K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.3% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Joe Kent | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Tom Brady | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | — | $370K | active |
| Byron Donalds | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Josh Hawley | 0.3% | — | $991K | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 0.3% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Elise Stefanik | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Steve Bannon | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 0.1% | — | $820K | active |
| Katie Britt | 0.3% | — | $2.0M | active |
| John Thune | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Erika Kirk | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.3% | — | $694K | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.3% | — | $894K | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.4M | active |
Probability sum: 84.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC