Politics

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.7%
No implied probability: 99.3%
Liquidity: $952K
24h activity: $20K
Lifetime volume: $8.4M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 12:01 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Pete Hegseth	0.3%	+0.05pp	$1.9M	active
Ivanka Trump	0.7%	—	$952K	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$630K	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
J.D. Vance	47.3%	-0.1pp	$332K	active
Ron DeSantis	2.9%	-0.1pp	$328K	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.9%	—	$335K	active
Marco Rubio	22.9%	—	$305K	active
Joe Kent	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
Tucker Carlson	2.6%	—	$283K	active
John Thune	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Nikki Haley	0.3%	—	$1.3M	active
Donald Trump	2.3%	—	$381K	active
Tom Brady	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Kristi Noem	0.3%	—	$1.9M	active
Donald Trump Jr.	1.6%	+0.05pp	$652K	active
Mike Pence	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Steve Bannon	0.3%	—	$1.9M	active
Eric Trump	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Byron Donalds	0.5%	—	$1.9M	active
Elon Musk	0.8%	—	$2.2M	active
Thomas Massie	0.8%	—	$456K	active
Candace Owens	0.3%	—	$1.1M	active
Marjorie Taylor Greene	0.5%	—	$1.1M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
Rand Paul	0.5%	—	$1.7M	active
Greg Abbott	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	0.5%	—	$1.8M	active
Elise Stefanik	0.5%	—	$2.1M	active
Matt Gaetz	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Ted Cruz	0.9%	—	$1.1M	active
Brian Kemp	0.3%	—	$954K	active
Erika Kirk	0.3%	—	$2.1M	active
Josh Hawley	0.3%	—	$1.0M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.9%	—	$770K	active
Katie Britt	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.5%	—	$1.5M	active
Sarah Huckabee Sanders	0.6%	—	$2.3M	active

Probability sum: 93.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC